Page 56 - WEF Reoprt 2020

as well as in the ocean. Up to 80% of the deteriorations in security. Indigenous
oxygen humans breathe comes from the communities who rely on the rainforest
ocean. Without reefs, coastal communities would struggle and possibly disappear. The
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would be more vulnerable to storms, tourism industry, critical for South American
and migration away from low-lying economies, could be badly affected.
population centres and islands could
increase. As the oceans “become largely
lifeless or at least extremely transformed”, No silver bullet
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the fishing and tourism industries could be
wiped out. In some regions, collapsing fish The UN declared 2010 to be the International
stocks could increase security risks, such Year of Biodiversity. Notwithstanding the
as piracy and terrorism. 53 appearance of biodiversity as a top risk by
both likelihood and impact on the GRPS (see
Disappearance of the Amazon Figure II, The Global Risks Landscape 2020),
Around 12 million hectares of tropical forest 10 years later, general confusion persists
worldwide were lost in 2018, equivalent to about what precisely biodiversity is, why
30 football fields per minute. The Amazon it relates to human prosperity and how to
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alone has lost approximately 17% of its confront its loss. Achievement of the Aichi
size over the last 50 years, and rates of Biodiversity Targets for 2020 has lagged.
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deforestation have been rising since 2012. Since the targets were set in 2011, global
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The Amazon now absorbs around a third production of metals, minerals, fossil fuels
less carbon than it did a decade ago, and and biomass has increased by more than
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a recent study found that increasing dryness 20%, while an area larger than Mexico has
in the atmosphere is leaving ecosystems been deforested.
even more vulnerable to fire and drought.
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The rapid disappearance of more of the
rainforest could exacerbate the effects of
climate change: if 20% to 25% of the forest is oxygen that humans
lost, scientists warn that the Amazon could 80 % breathe comes
pass a tipping point where a vicious cycle
of drought, fire and canopy loss takes hold from the ocean
that cannot be stopped. This tipping point
could be reached within decades. The
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destruction of the forests of Borneo offer an
ominous precedent: mass deforestation and Solutions to stemming biodiversity loss
fires there have led to the loss of over 50% of will be as complex as the problem itself.
lowland tropical rainforest. 59 No longer can nature be protected by either
“sparing” (preserving areas of land where
Because the Amazon is the world’s most species can thrive away from production)
diverse ecosystem and home to about 10% or “sharing” (integrating processes where
of terrestrial species, its destruction means nature and food production coexist). Both
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potentially undiscovered cures for disease approaches are required and both will
would be lost forever. More intense fires involve trade-offs: how should biodiversity
and flooding in the region, as well as more be weighed against social and economic
unpredictable rainfall patterns and droughts, imperatives such as food production and
could also ensue. This would undermine economic development? For example,
food production, increase water scarcity organic agriculture avoids the use of
and reduce hydropower generation, with harmful chemicals but might require more
economic costs exceeding US$3 trillion. land for comparable yields. Similarly, the
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Global agricultural markets might suffer production of biofuels and bioenergy with
as well, since Brazil is one of the world’s carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a
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largest agricultural exporters of products potential game-changer for negative carbon
including soybeans, maize and meat. A emissions. However, BECCS
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significant decline in Brazil’s agricultural also uses large swaths of agricultural
output could increase volatility of food land, with implications for future socio-
prices, which history shows can trigger economic developments, food security
instability and contribute to long-term and biodiversity management.

The Global Risks Report 2020 51