Page 42 - WEF Reoprt 2020

decade. Far-reaching policies will be
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needed to transform industrial
processes, transport, agriculture and
land-use, alongside changes in consumer
behaviours to scale the necessary
critical solutions. 77

As policies shift and societies transition,
options must be assessed holistically
because disorderly transition could
potentially exacerbate impacts with short-
sighted responses. For example, materials
needed for low-carbon technologies such
as nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese
could be mined from the seabed—but the
impacts of deep-sea mining on ecosystems
and ocean health could offset its benefits.
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Likewise, the deployment of bioenergy with
carbon capture and storage could require
up to 700 mega hectares (an area twice
the size of India) for bioenergy crops by the
end of the century —and at a time when
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the global population may have reached
nearly 11 billion people. Converting such REUTERS/CRACK PALINGGI
large swaths of land to monocultures has
clear consequences for food production New political and social dynamics may now
and nature. Geopolitical relationships will also be creating the policy space available to
shift as trade in fossil fuels becomes less embark on the radical trajectory needed to
economically important. mitigate drastic warming. At the same time,
adaptation needs to be given urgent priority,
Alongside the risks, the next decade brings not only to prepare for the possibility of very
tremendous opportunity; technological dangerous levels of climate change in the
breakthroughs are happening all the time. future, but also to eliminate the resilience
For example, most recently, a start-up deficit we face today. A series of important
announced it had developed a way to initiatives—such as the report from the
harness artificial intelligence and mirrors Global Commission for Adaptation, the
reflecting the sun to create the extreme Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment,
heat required for industrial processes—a and the Just Rural Transition—were launched
potential game-changer for the source of in 2019 at the UN Climate Action Summit
around 10% of global emissions each year. as a package of measures on resilience.
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84
Clean energy is increasing (see Figure 3.1) These initiatives aim to ensure infrastructure
while also getting cheaper and creating investment, spark innovation on adaptation
jobs. The cost per unit of electricity from and set out a principles for a just transition,
onshore wind and photovoltaic solar power among other goals.
plants has dropped by about 70% and 90%
respectively over the last decade. In most The 2020s—the decade of delivery for the
81
countries, it is now cheaper to install new Sustainable Development Goals—needs to
wind or solar power stations than new coal also be the resilience decade for climate.
power plants. The International Renewable Concerted action is required not only to
82
Energy Agency estimates that shifting to reduce emissions, but also to develop
renewables could grow the world economy credible adaptation strategies, including
by 1% a year until 2050, a cumulative gain climate-proofing infrastructure, closing the
of over US$52 trillion (see Figure 3.1). insurance protection gap and scaling up
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Other industries, such as agriculture public and private adaptation finance. This
through regenerative growing practices, and will require governments and businesses
food production through meat alternatives, to identify and prioritize risks and develop
carry still-untapped potential. metrics and strategies to manage them. 85

The Global Risks Report 2020 37